What is a Critical Juncture?
1. Synonyms. The term juncture (critical juncture) has a substantial number of approximate synonyms. Correspondingly, the idea is familiar. From the first slide, the title of Frost’s poem “The Road Not Taken” suggests the same conception.
2. Duration. Point (point of inflection) and moment (founding moment) are certainly compelling expressions. Yet for the founding of institutions, the notions of a point and time and a moment and time are implausibly short. Period (period of reorientation), episode (pivotal episode) , and event (critical event) appear more appropriate.* Juncture (critical juncture) has been defined both as a “point where things join,” and “period where things join.” For present purposes, the idea of a “period were things join” is more appropriate.
3. Counterfactual. Frost’s poem reminds us that counterfactual reasoning is important in research on critical junctures. That is to say, the claim by Frost’s wanderer that the choice of roads “made all the difference” depends on a comparison of the choice that occurred with the choice that did not occur, i.e., the road not taken.
4. Deterministic? The expression “made all the difference” appears to suggest perfect explanation and a deterministic relationship. Many scholars doubt that critical junctures and their legacies should be understood deterministically, and might think that Robert Frost took some artistic license.
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* William Riker (1957) has insightfully discussed the duration of events.
2. Duration. Point (point of inflection) and moment (founding moment) are certainly compelling expressions. Yet for the founding of institutions, the notions of a point and time and a moment and time are implausibly short. Period (period of reorientation), episode (pivotal episode) , and event (critical event) appear more appropriate.* Juncture (critical juncture) has been defined both as a “point where things join,” and “period where things join.” For present purposes, the idea of a “period were things join” is more appropriate.
3. Counterfactual. Frost’s poem reminds us that counterfactual reasoning is important in research on critical junctures. That is to say, the claim by Frost’s wanderer that the choice of roads “made all the difference” depends on a comparison of the choice that occurred with the choice that did not occur, i.e., the road not taken.
4. Deterministic? The expression “made all the difference” appears to suggest perfect explanation and a deterministic relationship. Many scholars doubt that critical junctures and their legacies should be understood deterministically, and might think that Robert Frost took some artistic license.
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* William Riker (1957) has insightfully discussed the duration of events.